Without new plants, blackouts loom

Toronto needs more generating capacity or it will run short on power, report warns

Globe and Mail - July 9, 2005
by Murray Campbell

Toronto could face rotating blackouts unless new power-generation plants are built in the downtown area within three years, says the agency responsible for managing Ontario's electricity system.

In a 10-year forecast released yesterday, the Independent Electricity System Operator said transmission lines into the city are already operating at or near capacity on hot summer days.

It said demand is growing faster than new transmission lines can be built, which is why new generation capacity is needed near the downtown core where electricity consumption is high.

The IESO forecast that Toronto would be hit by "emergency load shedding" -- blackouts -- without new generation and significant conservation initiatives to cut demand.

The agency also said that Ontario's commitment to shut down all its coal-fired generation stations by early 2009 poses "significant risks and challenges" to the electricity system. It says the coal plants should be kept in reserve to ensure replacement plants get through their teething problems.

This latest IESO report indicates the supply-shortfall problems that emerged under the Progressive Conservative government have not evaporated under Dalton McGuinty's Liberals.

The IESO said it was pleased to note that significant additions to generation capacity have been announced since its last 10-year forecast in March of 2004. It noted, for example, that a 650-megawatt gas-fired plant has come on stream and that the restart of a unit at the Pickering A nuclear station has added another 515 MW.

As well, the agency said, the government has announced a further 2,595 MW of new supply initiatives and that there are discussions and negotiations for adding 9,000 MW of capacity. But it said "timely decisions" on these projects will be necessary to deal with the projected shortfall resulting from the shutdown of the coal plants.

"That progress must continue in order to ensure continued reliability of Ontario's electricity system," IESO president Dave Goulding said.

Demand for electricity in Ontario is projected to grow by 1 per cent annually, although the IESO said it couldn't yet determine the impact of the government's conservation efforts.

As well, it predicted that the amount of electricity required during periods of intense weather will continue to grow. A new record was set on June 27 when demand reached 26,029 MW, surpassing the previous record of 25,414 set in August, 2002.

The IESO said the summer peak is projected to be near 30,000 MW by 2015. The province's current generation capacity, including 6,500 MW from four coal plants, is 29,663 MW.

The Toronto situation is particularly acute because of a combination of rising demand and inadequate transmission facilities.

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